The need to write

I sit here among walls of red
Pain radiating from my ankle
And I know I am lucky

I sit here learning from a book
Writing my thoughts, my goals
And I know I am blessed

I sit here relaxing drinking wine
My thoughts clear, my path drawn
And I know I am cherished

I sit here thinking off my trinity
My soul, my iron rose
My centre, my deep Daughter
My heart, my lovely Daughter

And I know,
I am lucky
I am blessed
I am cherished

Memoriam - A good life

Recently my younger brother found an old email from my father who passed in early 2006. This email was written late 2005. My father wrote very little in that email but said much. He knew mortality was near and he chose my brother to handle A delicate matter (the title of his email). In that email, my father told him that it was difficult for him to talk about but it may be easier for my brother. And he attached his own obituary. 

I remember my father as a man always strong in his convictions and he was not easy to bend. But in that email, he showed his vulnerability and then in the attachment, he showed grace, wisdom and happiness. My siblings and I do feel at times that we lost our parents too early and it may be so but what we got was the two greatest guides we could ever have asked for. We were and are lucky. 

And my father's words in that attachment covered all that he loved, his family first and foremost, the lodge and the importance of his friends. But it is these words that he left that, i believe, he left us his final lesson and guidance. 

“He came to the world, his hands were empty

but when  he left,  his heart was full”

When i read these words, i remember my father's repeated question to me - "What is a good life?". I have answered this question with varying answers many times BUT i answer it now with his final lesson in mind. A good life is a life surrounded by love, respect and happiness. 

My father had a good life. 

Cash is King (yeah right...no seriously)

Recently a friend helped me frame my thoughts around cash and the issues that with inflation and the very poor interest rates that banks pay, our cash generates little when not used/invested. This view drove me aggressively to look at using my cash actively to invest in liquid assets. My investment choice was stocks (and still is). 

But it's been a rough two months (Dec15-Feb16) with markets dropping close to 20%. Now to me, i don't view my net worth as a number but more as how much i have achieved against my long term goals - university and school fees for my daughters, financial security for the family and the like. 

So here i am sitting on a sizeable investment portfolio with very little cash as i viewed my liquid assets as available for sale and then the market dropped and i realised that my goals that i track monthly dropped significantly. I did not feel secure, calm and assured that i could take advantage of this opportunity (low prices = opportunity). 

This made me realise as much as stocks are a great long term investment tool, there is a place for cash as well. The security it gives you, the flexibility it gives you to maintain calm and continue investing and most importantly, the ability to take advantage of opportunities that come, especially the once-in-a-decade like opportunities like we saw in 1998 and 2008. 

So i have revised my view - there is a place for CASH. 

But now in Singapore, how do you maximise your CASH holdings?

Now thanks to that same friend who compiled some data, i hope to put in a plan to do this. My goal is simple, to feel secure, to maintain calm to continue investing and to take advantage of investment opportunities when they come. The key words - secure, calm and opportunity. 

So first, what are the best cash accounts out there. 

We evaluated 3 accounts, the DBS multiplier account, the UOB One Account and the OCBC 360 account. 

To make a like and like comparison, we looked at what 50k in these accounts could generate in interest and then only looked at what the conditions we would need. (We also excluded any conditions that pays you additional interest only if you invest in an insurance/investment product - that's not cash). 

So for 50k, the DBS Multiplier pays 2.08%, the UOB One Account pays 2.43% and OCBC pays 2.20%. As you can see, all pretty close. Now what are the conditions? All three require your salary to be credited to this account. All 3 require a bank credit card and regular use of the cards monthly. DBS even allows your home mortgage payments to be applied to this balance as well and OCBC/UOB require 3 GIRO bills to be paid. 

For me, it was an easy choice, my salary is currently credited to DBS. Then i got a DBS Mortgage. So i opened the DBS Multiplier Account a few months ago and now to add to the monthly balance (that they require) i have applied for a DBS Credit Card (the Altitude card) as i just want mileage points. 

So my first advice to those of you who are keen on maintaining cash, choose the right account for you and maximise this balance. 

Now the next steps, creating a FD ladder. To me, to feel secure, calm and to be able to take opportunities when they come, cash needs to be available. As such, my goal is to place FDs maturing each month for at least 12 months. 

Now most of the banks pay a very low 0.05 for a 1mth FD up to 0.25 for a 1yr FD save for the Malaysian banks like Maybank/RHB and the Indian banks like  SBI and ICICI that pay up to 0.75%.

So here, i think the FD rates are quite meaningless but the need to set up a proper FD ladder framework is key. 

So my choice the DBS Multiplier account and a FD ladder at a convenient bank. 

So assuming a 50k in the DBS multiplier account and an average 10k placed over 12 months earning an average of 0.25%, the interest earned will be 87 a month for the DBS account and 25 for the FD amount. A GRAND total of just about 112. 

Now as the saying goes - BETTER than nothing. 

But the goal is clear, to keep secure, calm and to be ready for opportunity. 

The Health Era or so I Hope

When i started this blog, it was a means of me sharing my thoughts, my ideas and a desire to write. There was no theme and no direction. Every piece was motivated by an event, a person, a muse, an inspiration and obstacles that needed to be overcome.

I have written before about my medical issues but for the sake of a future reader or one day if my daughters do find this blog - let them know, my issues were myriad and i fought the good fight. I did not go gently into the night. I raged against the dying of the light.

So my issues started with pre diabetes, high cholesterol, high uric acid and then a fractured and dislocated tail bone and NOW, surgery to repair an ankle ligament, removal of dead bone and replacement of cartilage in my ankle.

Now i am embarrassed when i am asked - you are 40 but what have you done. All i can say, i neglected my health for so long and now i am paying the price. So in December 2012, i started on this journey of regular medical check ups and blood tests every 3 to 6 months - all with the goal of regaining my health without meds or more realistically delaying the need for meds. And as all my efforts and paths - i READ, i analyse, i collect data and finally use the data to ensure that there is progress, incremental but definite.

So i apologise to the reader for the following but as i read, i wanted a place to note what i had read and now understand but it may be boring to some. For me, i realise information and the use of information drives all that i do. I am a believer of Incremental Progress as long as its backed by DATA.

So this current information is about foods  and the benefits of some and how at home now, i have changed my diet to one of salads, fruits and controlled and portioned proteins. I do not know who this will benefit but i was sparked to write, and i never stop when that spark is lit.

Alcohol raises HDL (good cholesterol). Increase in apolipoprotein A-1, major protein component of HDL, extracts cholesterol from cells and moves to liver for extraction.

Oh thank god!!!! Alcohol or as a good friend's father, a doctor and surgeon, said in moderation is beneficial. In fact he said 14 units a week is good and pick your days - my kind of doctor and surgeon. Binge drinking is of course WRONG (special note to my daughters) but as my dad used to say Responsible drinking and appreciation is RIGHT. Now it's good to know there is science to back this up.

Free Radicals - unstable oxygen molecules that enter the body and needs electrons which they take from the body including arterial walls. Anti-oxidants places itself between the radicals and healthy cells in the body. They give up the electrons the free radicals need. 

Free Radicals - BAD. Anti-oxidants - GOOD.

Vitamin C - increases HDL and lowers LDL (bad cholesterol). Vitamin E - reduces the oxidation of LDL which causes heart disease. Good sources of Vitamin E - pumpkin seeds, sunflower seeds, nuts, kale & asparagus. 

So salads with seeds, some fruits daily. We are on the right track.

Apples - contains pectin which has been proven to reduce cholesterol. The skin contains the antioxidant quercetin which prevents oxidation leading to heart disease. 

Artichokes - contains cynarin which increases bile production of the liver. Needed for excretion of cholesterol. 

Avocados - high in monosaturated fat and rich in oleic acid, which reduces LDL while keeping HDL stable. It also lowers triglycerides. High in fibre needed to clear cholesterol. High in potassium which lowers blood pressure. 

Beans - high in soluble fibre which lowers blood glucose responses, stabilises blood sugar, slows absorption of fat. High in Omega3 fatty acids. Reduces cholesterol and triglycerides and may increase HDL. 

Berries - highest in antioxidants, high in folate, fibre and pottasium and Vitamin C. Prevents oxidation of LDL, heart disease. 

Blueberries contain pterostilbene which is very effective in lowering cholesterol. In fact may be as effective as certain cholesterol lowering drugs.

Broccoli - high in Vit A & C, soluble fibre, calcium, potassium, folate. Is a superfood. Contains glucoraphamin which reduces inflammations and prevents heart disease. 

Oh yes, please. Anything to stop inflammations. I have gout. I hate saying it and admitting it but when you have an attack, you are thankful for great MEDS that can reduce inflammation. Now here, if they say eat broccoli a day and i can avoid the PAIN, i am a believer and i will eat it every day.

Calcium - reduces blood pressure, LDL, increases HDL. Calcium blocks absorption of saturated fats and binds with cholesterol containing bile which is then easily excreted. Vit D is needed to aid calcium absorption. 

These are some of the many supplements i now take - Calcium and Vit D.

Canola oil - same benefits as olive oil but lighter for cooking. Good in reducing LDL but maintains HDL. Low in saturated fat. 

Dark Chocolate raises HDL, prevents LDL oxidation. 

Cinnamon - high in antioxidants, improves insulin sensitivity. 

Eggs - raises LDL and HDL but of the large particle kind which excises cholesterol and is less likely to stick to arterial walls. 

Exercise - boosts HDL, gets LDL out while reducing triglycerides. Improves efficiency of enzyme lipoprotein lipase which attacks triglycerides, breaks it down to base which makes HDL. Weight loss increases HDL levels. 

Fish - other meats high in saturated fats increasing LDL and promoting oxidation leading to heart disease. Fish is low on sat fats and high in omega 3 fatty acids - decreases triglycerides, increasing HDL and enhancing insulin sensitivity. Keeps blood platelets from clinging to one another preventing clots, lowers blood pressure. 

Flaxseed - high in omega3 from linolenic acid plus high in soluble fiber. Reduce LDL

Fibre - insoluble fibre clears the gut. Soluble fibre combines with water in the GI tract and forms a gelatinous-like substance that prevents cholesterol absorption. Fibre may lower levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), a risk factor for future heart disease.

Tea - There are 4 types of teas - black, oolong, green and white. Black and oolong are fermented teas. Green tea is non fermented but allowed to be matured and air dried. White tea is also non- fermented but is picked young and steamed immediately. This preserves the polyphenol content which reduces LDL, triglycerides, increases HDL and prevents oxidation of cholesterol. It may also help insulin sensitivity and some proof that it helps in fighting and preventing cancer. 
  So far that's it but the learning journey continues.

The returns to NORM

VedsInvest Fund1  - 2 May 2015

General Thoughts –

I recently read a report from Gavekal, one of the few investment advisory firms that i like reading. They tend to focus on big picture issues and then narrow down their focus. Another one of those costs that i will need to cater for when i start my own firm on top of my Bloomberg.

In this report, the author highlighted that the average return from 1965 to 2012 in the S&P 500 was around 10% and the expected returns was between -10% to 25%.  Since 2012, though the average return has been 16% with returns from +9% to 25%. They argue that this is primarily from the intervention of central banks that push liquidity to ensure financial markets remain steady and growing.

I am not sure whether they are completely right but there is some truth to what they say. But the bigger take is – Can we expect returns to maintain at 16% when historical averages are at 10% OR should we expect corrections to bring long term averages back to norm.

Again the answer is not that easy. But if the question was “In the long run, should we expect corrections to bring long term averages back to norm?”. Then my answer is a resounding yes. But in the short run, looking forward the next 2 or 3 years, i am unsure.

As such my strategies remain the same, looking for stocks that have good growth prospects, a relatively strong balance sheet and a good track record. I suspect this strategy will do relatively well as markets go up BUT hopefully will outperform significantly when markets go down. Only time will tell. 

VedsBlog @ 2 May 2015

The Farmer Story - When is enough?

Recently, i have been reading a lot of investment books or more precisely books either written by or about great investors of this generation. The current book i am reading is by Peter Lynch - Beating the Odds. Lynch was the fund manager for Magellan Fund, an equity fund. He was one of the greats when at the age of 43 he quit and chose to spend more time with his family and pursuing work that appealed to him. He continued to invest and served on many charity boards and helped set up investment panels and plans for many of these charities.

When he was considering retirement he had many come to him and propose a closed end fund that would be exchange traded. Those that came to him told him they could raise billions against his name and the management fee alone would pay him close to 15m a year. He could then set up analysts, fund managers who would do most of the investment/work using his investment philosophies and strategies. The kicker they said, was immaterial of how the fund performed, he would make his 15m a year.

In the end, Lynch said NO for 2 reasons, that his desire to beat the market was just as strong and he would not be able to take that money knowing that he was not doing his best for his investors. He left the industry at his prime at age 43. The following was what he wrote in the early introduction chapters of this book - Beating the Odds.

I have always been sceptical of millionaires who congratulate themselves for walking away from a chance to enrich themselves further. Turning one's back on fat future paycheck is a luxury that few can afford. 

But if you're lucky enough to have been rewarded in life to the degree that i have, there comes a point at which you have to decide whether to become a slave to your net worth, devoting the rest of your life to increase it or to let what you accumulated begin to serve you. 

There's a Tolstoy story that involves an ambitious farmer. He is given an offer for all the land that he can encircle in a day. After running at full speed for several hours, he acquires several square miles of valuable property, more than enough to make him and his family rich for generations. The poor fellow is drenched in sweat and gasping for breath. He thinks about stopping but he can't help himself. He races ahead to maximise his opportunity, until finally he drops dead of exhaustion. 

This was the ending i hoped to avoid. 

This was the ending i hoped to avoid.

This line stayed with me as i read the rest of the book and finally i came back to this chapter and wrote it down and was felt compelled to write about it. It is nice to feel this strongly again to be able to want to write.

As i turned 40, i wonder as i work and struggle with my wife to achieve our financial goals for our children and for ourselves, could i reach a point in my career to do what Lynch did and MOVE on at age 43.

I doubt it but i think the choice of when to stop is not the right question or focus - it is more the choice of letting what you accumulated begin to serve you. To do this, we must accumulate and then use it to pursue our bigger and more personal goals.

I believe i am lucky as i feel that even though i may have a busy or stressful life, i have parts of Time to be with my family. But, what i want is the choice of all-Time to spend it them and at the same time to feel i am achieving my own goals of being relevant, being influential and being liked. I want time of Choice to build my own Financial Advisory business and pursue my own charity goals.

At age 43, Lynch did this by knowing that he had accumulated enough for his choice of lifestyle of giving back and spending the time he wanted rather than the time he could. I am not sure when i will be able to say the same but i know i am PLANNING for it.

This is the beginning i hope to create.

VedsBlog @ April2015

The Life streaked Silver

We traveled the silver streak
We crossed and jumped the mountain
We saw down and we yelled defiant 

We optioned to go up 
Young and free
Coming down compulsory 
Still young less free

But we lived the silver streak
Now we are the silver streak

Bright, happy and option free
I choose the life streaked silver

Life is what you are, Fun or not, Happy or sad, Life is Great! - SSK

Poem by my daughter in Grade 2!

The Journey

Recently i was at a dinner with some very close friends and one of the friends asked me why i had stopped writing. I answered him that i just could not find the spark to write. But i have been thinking about this question. I do enjoy writing so why did i stop. Did i stop seeing the spark? Or did i see the spark but just not have the energy or desire to stop and feel it?

Yes, there is an element of life feeling so overwhelming that you do not have the energy to focus internally. I think this is what happened with me. My weight jumped back to almost the same level it was in December 2012 when i took the steps to control my life and health. I was constantly playing tower defense games on my phones, those mindless, addictive games that numb your mind. 

I was floating. I was not focusing on my internal issues and was just unwilling to stop and assess my life and my decisions. 

Then my daughter comes to me one day and she says to me, You have to stop playing those games. It numbs your mind. I thought she was just repeating something she had heard and did not pay much heed to it. But then, one day she told me how she got up one morning and from the time she got up, to the time she got on to her bus and got off to school, all her thoughts and focus was on the game she was playing the night before on the iPad. That next morning, i got up and got in a taxi and got off to work and i found that all my thoughts and focus was on the game i was playing. It really made me wonder if a 11 year old was realising that the game was numbing her mind, was the same happening to me?

So i told myself, that i would try a day without the game. I got up and as i had no game to play, as i got into the taxi to work, my mind started focusing on the day ahead and what i needed to do. As i got to my computer, i was already clear on my goals for the day. That was an efficient day. 

Then when i got home, my normal routine would be to play the game till i felt so sleepy i would just nod off. This time, i suddenly had time and i started reading. And i got hooked on the book i was reading Enders Game by Orson Scott Card. 

That day was almost 1 and a half months ago. Since then, i have read more than 15 books, i have found that my communication skills and my ability to hold conversations better. I had become more focused at work and in all honesty i think i had become a better father and partner as well. 

So where was the spark? I realised that i was starting to think more creatively and now i felt like i wanted to feel the spark. I was not hiding anymore. 

Last night, i was reading a book of poetry - 10 poems to change your life. Now i am not a big reader of poetry but i do think that an author who can write poetry and lyrics that strike the reader's heart and mind, is an author of authors. I bet every writer would ask to have such a voice that with small prose and poise, they convey strength, beauty, ache and desire and nobility. 

I came across this in this book of poetry. Now this particular poem was not powerful in a line or two but i think as a whole, the poem spoke to me that in life, we have to hear our voice, we have to be true to that voice and as her last line says - to save the only life we can. 

The author was Mary Oliver and who knows what struggles she had but thats the beauty about poetry, it is always personal and subject to the reader's perception. The title of this spark to me, is The Journey.

One day you finally knew
what you had to do, and began,
though the voices around you
kept shouting
their bad advice--

though the whole house
began to tremble
and you felt the old tug
at your ankles
"Mend my life!"
each voice cried
But you didn't stop. 

You knew what you had to do,
though the wind pried
with its stiff fingers
at the very foundations,
though their melancholy
was terrible.

It was already late 
enough, and a wild night,
and the road full of fallen
branches and stones.

But little by little,
as you left their voices behind,
the stars began to burn
though the sheets of clouds, 
and there was a new voice
which you slowly
recognised as your own,
that kept you company
as you strode deeper and deeper
into the world, 
determined to do 
the only thing you could do-----

determined to save
the only life that you could save. 

What we learn? Or why my daughter inspires me?

Today my daughter taught me two valuable lessons. The first about drive and how the need to improve has to be motivated internally and secondly how compassion and caring has no age expectation or requirement but a genuine need to make another feel better.

A week ago She was given a project where she had to create a presentation about the canopy layer of the Taman Negara rainforest. She visited there a month ago and her presentation was on life cycles of the different sub species that she had researched.  She felt that her presentation in class was not as good as she thought it could be and now in her holiday she redid the presentation and presented it to her grandmother on our visit to KL. She had no need to redo this project but she was upset that she could have done better and decided that she should redo it. As an adult, I have faced so many instances where I have passed work or a presentation and told myself I could have done better. She just taught me we strive to improve not to impress others but to impress/better ourselves.

Then tonight after a long night yesterday with her dance performances and flying in today and a late dinner, she spent the last 45 minutes putting moisturizer and scratching the legs of her grandmother, who is facing end stage bile duct cancer which has led to rising bilirubin levels causing a severe internal itch. No one had asked her to do this but she knew my mum, her grandmother would find it comforting.  That's compassion and we all could learn from the gifts of our children.

She makes me proud.

The Journey begins

So i ended my last post with the fact that i am trying to organise my systems and processes to be more efficient and to manage my time appropriately. The first step was to define my Categories. They are Work, Home, Health and Dreams.

So on Work, i took a step back and realised that my primary organisational tool and what i worked off regularly was my email. I already had a good filing system where i would file emails but i realised that i was overfiling and losing track of the action items required. So now i have adjusted the system - every morning i get in and i go through all my emails. Any email that can be trashed is trashed, any email that can be filed (no action required), i file, any email where i need to read/review/strategise i keep in my INBOX. I only action on emails that i can get done in the next 10 seconds. SO i delegate, reply or forward immediately. So by mid morning before 10am i am done and all unread emails would have been read.

I then have my morning meeting with the team and we discuss our trading views and what we need to do for the day. Then its early lunch for me and then back at 1pm. I scan through for any emails that are urgent and address those but generally i leave all new new emails untouched.

Now i go to the bottom of my Inbox ie the item that has been there the longest. This involves projects that i am working on for work and home and needs time. Next i make a decision whether i have the time and energy and if its a priority project and if YES, then i work on it till i have completed the action item. I then resend an email to myself with my update and the next action item defined. This now goes to the top of my Inbox as the newest item.

Now if its a NO, i just resend the item and it moves back up to the to of the inbox and i delete the old entry.

I work this till 4.30pm and then stop to focus on our closing for the day. This is done by 5.30. Next i spent the next 30m just clearing all the new emails. So my next day i only have to deal with pertinent emails.

Now after 6 i am focusing on Health - to exercise Monday to Thursday with Friday off. (Weekends i am hoping to do at least 1 day).

Today after months of not training, i ran home from work. 6.25km in 1h 10m which is pretty bad as i did a 10km before in 1h 15m. Need to get this down to under 1h and then focus on moving up to 10km. Ultimately its to be able to complete 21km.

So the journey has begun and this blog is serving as my reminder to keep at it. I really dont know who will read all this in the end but sometimes, we write for ourselves and not for our audience.

How we plan but don't follow through?

This is my problem. I just read my last post - http://ramukavisved.blogspot.sg/2012/07/start-up-of-you-introducing-ved.html. And honestly i am very disappointed. It was a great post and was inspired by the book i read and my intentions was clear to build a platform for myself but as i got caught up in my new responsibilities at work and with family issues, i did not follow through. Being inspired is the first step to creating change BUT to be inspiring, truly inspiring, you need to follow through and that is my problem. There must be follow through. Now i have to say in my defense, i have been adjusting to a lot with increased responsibilities at work and also with home developments that have forced me to refocus a lot of my time and energy back to my extended family. I have in short, been overwhelmed. I am continuously drained and tired and my workload keeps increasing. It has been hard to focus on the big picture goals i had when i was struggling to meet my day to day workload. I needed another burst of inspiration. My wife spoke to me about a friend and how she found that he had a system for work where he was effective even as he worked from home. Now i started to think about this and i realised that i had no system of my own. So a few months back as we walked through the bookstore she gave me a book with the very simple title Getting Things Done by David Allen. I had no idea who he was but i was open to anything. The book appeals to me as it tries to define a plan or system (knowing that everyone has different ways of working) that can work. I wont go into much detail but the first step was to define all the actions, projects that i needed to work on and then create a system to go through this and then to have a weekly review and define the next action plans required. Seems simple enough but when you have a wave of work and home issues hitting you, you tend to lose that ability to manage effectively. I have started following some of the guidelines in that book and i can see a 20% improvement now. Now in the book it states that one of the key elements on any productivity system is the Weekly Review. I needed a way to be honest with myself and i have found that i am at the most honest and open when i write. So this blog is my honest account as i get focused on Gettings things Done and FOLLOWING THROUGH. I will end here but say that i have started Collecting all the tasks and projects that i NEED to do and also WANT to do. It is hitting over 50. SO my first step is to categorise those tasks/projects into 4 broad categories - Work, Home, Health, Dreams.

The Start Up of You / Introducing Ved

Recently, i read a book that resonated. It was The Start-up of You which was co-authored by Reid Hoffman (the founder of LinkedIn). I believe its the best career book for this generation and the generation to come. Specifically, to me, it introduced, it highlighted and reinforced in a simple and elegant manner - the future of our careers and how to be prepared for it.

The authors' called it Plan ABZ. Plan A is your current career path. Plan B is your career that you need to pivot to, if needed and lastly Plan Z is your ideal career choice. The book highlighted clearly that all of us need to first understand what it is we want in life and in our careers. The authors' wanted everyone to understand that it's ok to be on Plan A but each and everyone of us should know that Plan A is never certain and we need to be prepared to 'pivot' to Plan B if things take a turn for the worse and in the current environments, Plan A can fail because 1) the economy for the business that your Plan A is on is failing or 2) the company that Plan A supports fail or even the 3) boss that was driving Plan A decides to quit. All 3 are hardly within our control.

I had a Plan A failing moment in 2009.

I was working for ABN in 2008 and after the hardest year of my working life, we were moving into late 2008, early 2009, firing on all cylinders. I was part of a dynamic trading group that was led by a very charismatic, hard working American. He had a vision and he led the group well and we were delivering on that vision. That year, our group made EUR350m and were on track to being the most profitable division in our space. It was fantastic. Our division was not only profitable but also very efficient. Unfortunately, ABN as a group was not. It had a terrible cost culture and the profitable divisions were supporting the weaker group and no one at the top was making the right choices. We were an ideal take over target and RBS fought hard to take us over.

Now RBS was a disaster in waiting. It was the most leveraged institution in the world and had made huge profits (easy to do with leverage) in good times. As such they felt that their cost to income ratios were the envy of the global banking community. They unfortunately did not have a low cost base but an inflated income base from leverage. When the deleveraging process started in 2009, their income contracted significantly leading to negative cost to income ratios as the cost base was just too high. The boss that we worked for tried hard to keep the business growing but lost faith with the RBS management and he decided to leave.

Here i was, happy and highly motivated on my Plan A within ABN and i never contemplated another job but suddenly i found my Plan A failing not because of me but because of the firm, my bosses and the economy. Thankfully, things worked out as i had another boss who was planning a Plan B himself and when he could decided that i should join him as well.

Since then i have always told myself, that i will never put myself in that position again. This book actually gave me an elegant way of expressing this goal - Plan ABZ. Its ok to be on Plan A but we must always be ready to pivot to plan B if the need arises.

So now i am working for a new organisation and it is going very well but I feel with the way things change in the world and the speed of it, everyone needs a Plan B. The book spoke about aligning goals and aspirations and character in designing an appropriate Plan B.  I wont try to elaborate further but i strongly recommend this book for everyone.

Now Plan Z is even more interesting. Plan Z is your ideal career choice. For me, its to have a global financial planning company that starts in South East Asia and then extends globally. I want my company to be on the cutting edge of using technology to allow every person the ability to reach financial freedom while enjoying life as well. Plan for the future, enjoy the now. I would love to put myself in a position to drive my own business that i am passionate about. The book speaks about having the buffers in place to go for Plan Z. What i like here is that they have not done the normal RA RA - " Follow the dream, all will be well!!!". They have taken the pragmatic approach and stated clearly, to pursue plan Z, you also need the ability to manage/pay for your life. Reid Hoffman cited his first company that he started which was an online dating company and how he moved back to his father's house so that he could safely run his business for a year knowing that he was covered.

Now they broke down buffer to not only financial buffers but also the 'soft' buffers like experience and skills. The book highlights that all of us have to continue building our financial, experience and skills buffers. For me, to achieve Plan Z or to pursue plan Z, i need to know that i have provided for my kids and my wife well (financial buffers). I also need to show people (and myself) that before i talk about financial freedom, i need to achieve it as well (experience buffer). Then i started to assess what are the skills that i lack to run my own business and i found 2 early issues - the lack of management experience and my inability to present well.

The book asks you to assess your weaknesses and then put a plan in action to resolve or work on those weaknesses. For me, i immediately made clear to my bosses that i wanted management experience and they felt that i was ready and recently promoted me and gave me extended responsibilities where i am involved in now looking at a team and also building new markets. With this, i found i was doing a lot more presentations to high level individuals and groups within my organisation but still found that i lacked the ability to present topics well and so i started to volunteer to carry out case studies and career advice to young students at universities in Singapore. I hope to do more.

Its amazing but this book did put a lot of things in perspective and even better it made me work out my own career path and my own Plan ABZ. Now the book had a few more interesting notions and 2 of the more relevant topics (to me) was the need to have a 1) personal Brand and to 2) cultivate a strong network that can assist in achieving our Plan ABZ.

So let me quickly introduce Ved - my efforts in Branding myself.

Facebook - Dev Siva Kumar
I have never seen how one website has made it so easy for us to share our memories and to keep in touch with friends. But, i am also very wary. So now i am working hard to ensure more control is in place with this account. So i now post only to my circle and my network and really keeping the periphery at bay. Here, i will be sharing my life with my family and close friends.

LinkedIn - Dev Siva Kumar
This account is my most recent account. Here i have decided to focus on postings that reflect what is Good Management and good leadership. Here, i will share all that i have read or even what i personally write related to my efforts to be a better professional.

Twitter - VedsBlog

This twitter account is my professional twitter account and has two themes currently - 1) Why be a banker? and 2) Leadership. Theme 1 is related to my own belief that everyone of us needs to be achieving a greater good. I think we bankers need to also know that what we do is serving a bigger purpose and if your motivation is money alone, there are much better ways to make money if you are willing to take risks, be creative and be driven. Banking is a great career but there are other choices in the world. Theme 2 ties very closely with my Linked in postings and is focused on Plan ABZ and what it takes to achieve those plans.

Twitter - VedsVice

Here i am focused on my vices - Wine, Whisky and Watches. I find that the only tweeters i follow are those that have a theme running through their tweets. There is continuity and consistency. I am deliberately splitting VedsBlog and VedsVice as i wanted distinct themes to emerge and hopefully, the followers would appreciate it.

Twitter - VedsWeight

Now, this is a very personal twitter account. I started this account as i wanted to be able to keep a track of my own battles with not only weight loss but also my own deteriorating health. Since December when i was told that i was diabetic and if did not control my diet or exercise, i would need medication for life, i have been battling hard and seem to be winning. But its a constant battle and i wanted to document it.

Blog - VedsBlog

This has always been my biggest personal enjoyment - the ability to share my views. The beauty about blogs is that its one way - you write what you want with no distractions and then when you are done, you get to see the reactions. It suits me and its been quite rewarding to see the positive comments i have got.

So that's it for now. The Start up Of me - VED.

For those on Plan Z, my good friends, i am envious.

For those on Plan A, but pivoting to Plan B, the best of luck.

And for the rest of us in Plan A, be the best and be prepared.

d.

A Story by Ilyana

The bottom is written by my daughter Ilyana. At school they have been studying about migration and the class decided to research Afghanistan and how the Taliban affected migration. They then had to create a story in the first person using the facts thats they had researched. She had to plan each chapter to have a flow and timeline to include the proper facts. The bottom is her first chapter.

She is 9.

Taliban Attacking Afghanistan


My mom and dad hugged me and my sister while they left the house for work. My dad was sweating, his face was red I could see my dad’s shirt was wet at the back of him. There was cold drops of tears on my shaking legs. It was mom she was crying of fear.

I normally loved reading my mystery book after mom and dad left, I was almost finished with my book but I did not feel like doing that today. Instead I looked out of the terrifying window with all those nasty Talibans with super powered black guns all over the village. I suddenly heard a lady screaming like anything, the Talibans were whipping her for not covering her ankles. I dare not go outside there. I wondered to myself if I would die or whether this tragedy will stop. I couldn’t stand it!

Soon my mom and dad came back panting real fast. I asked my mom what happened “ the Taliban band our work and told us to run fast’’, she said still panting. The next we found out was our neighbor knocking on our door saying that we must go outside for a speech by the Taliban. We went outside. The Talibans were threatening us that we should change our religion to the Taliban religion.

That night we were sitting at the dinner table as usual. Everyone was so quiet just looking at the warm candle slowly melting. My mom’s tears flowed down her face and onto the plate. I asked my mom why the Taliban came to our village, she didn’t answer. I asked my my dad “ the Taliban came here because we the Hazara’s killed a taliban prisoner in 1997 ”, he whispered. That night I hardly slept, I was so terrified if we will survive. I kept saying to myself that we will survive but that never helped. we had to leave.

The next morning I saw my mom & dad having a little conversation. I slowly tiptoed step by step closer to the door to hear what they were talking about. they were saying something about leaving, I leaned closer to hear more.

Banker Depressed

An article from Bloomberg that was depressing. See not all bankers are living large....


Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- John Brady, co-head of MF Global Inc.’s Chicago office, was having a vodka cocktail at the Ritz- Carlton in Naples, Florida, overlooking the Gulf of Mexico, on the day his company reported its largest-ever quarterly loss.
"Wow, the sun just set," Brady said to his wife and two colleagues attending a conference with him, he recalled in an interview. "I hope it doesn’t set on MF Global."
A week later, on Oct. 31, the firm led by former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. co-Chief Executive Officer Jon Corzine collapsed. Brady and 1,065 colleagues joined a wave of firings that has washed away more than 200,000 jobs in the global financial-services industry this year, eclipsing 174,000 in 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show. BNP Paribas SA and UniCredit SpA announced cuts last week, and the carnage likely will worsen as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis roils markets.
"This is something very different," said Huw Jenkins, a former head of investment banking at UBS AG who’s now a London- based managing partner at Brazil’s Banco BTG Pactual SA. "This is a structural change. The industry is shrinking."
Wall Street rebounded from the financial crisis of 2008 with the help of unprecedented government support, including loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Goldman Sachs posted record profit the following year, and bonuses paid to securities-firm employees in New York City rose 17 percent to $20.3 billion, according to New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli.
‘Nothing There’
Now, faced with higher capital requirements, the failure of exotic financial products and diminished proprietary trading, the industry is undergoing what Steven Eckhaus, chairman of the executive-employment practice at Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP, called "a paradigm shift." The New York attorney, whose clients have included former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Chief Financial Officer Erin Callan, said he has stopped giving his "spiel" about inherent talent leading to new work.
In interviews, a dozen people who have lost jobs at firms including Societe Generale SA, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Jefferies Group Inc. described a grim banking landscape that also includes Occupy Wall Street protests against unemployment stuck above 9 percent and income inequality.
"These are by far my darkest days," said Scott Schubert, 49, who was dismissed in late 2008 as a mergers-and-acquisitions banker at Jefferies, a New York-based securities firm, and has been unemployed since. "It’s harder and harder to look for a job and feel that there’s nothing there."
HSBC, BNP Paribas
Banks, insurers and asset managers in Western Europe have been hardest hit, announcing about 105,000 dismissals this year,
66 percent more than the region’s losses in 2008 at the depths of the financial crisis, Bloomberg data show. The 50,000 job cuts in North America this year are more than twice last year’s and fewer than the 175,000 in 2008.
Almost every week since August has brought news of firings by the world’s biggest banks. HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest lender, announced that month it would slash 30,000 jobs by the end of 2013. In September, Bank of America Corp., the second-largest U.S. lender, said it would cut the same number of jobs. Both banks are trimming about 10 percent of their employees. Last week, BNP Paribas, France’s largest bank, said it will cut about 1,400 jobs at its corporate and investment- banking unit, and UniCredit, Italy’s biggest, said it plans to eliminate 6,150 positions by 2015.
"It’s a once-in-a-generation challenge," said John Purcell, founder of London-based executive search firm Purcell & Co. "Everyone who has worked in the City since 1985 will have no idea of how to cope with this level of dislocation."
Panic Attacks
Neil Brener, a psychiatrist whose patients work in London’s City and Canary Wharf financial districts said the stress is contributing to panic attacks, binge drinking and chest pains.
"Because there are fewer jobs, people are unhappy about being stuck," Brener said. "They don’t have options about moving, and there is a sense of feeling trapped."
London hiring could be frozen next year, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research Ltd. Headcount in the City and Canary Wharf may fall to 288,225 by the end of the year, 27,000 fewer than in 2010 and the lowest since at least 1998, when there were 289,666 jobs, according to the London- based research firm.
Wall Street won’t regain its lost jobs "until about 2023," Marisa Di Natale, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in an e-mail.
Second Time
That’s not encouraging for Michael Reiner, 44, who lost his job in June as a credit strategist in New York for Societe Generale, France’s second-largest bank, whose shares are down 60 percent this year. When he called his wife to tell her the news, she was home watching "The Company Men," a film about corporate downsizing, he said.
It wasn’t the first time Reiner had lost a job on Wall Street. He worked at Bear Stearns Cos. for 14 years until the firm collapsed in March 2008 and was taken over in a fire sale by JPMorgan Chase & Co. He said he was happy to have some time off with his family and go to Little League baseball games.
When he began looking for a job, he "wanted to find a place for the next 14 years," he said. A recruiter brought him to Paris-based Societe Generale. It didn’t last that long.
It’s harder to talk about losing a job the second time, Reiner said. "There are a lot of people I haven’t told."
Opportunities for employment "evaporated" as the European debt crisis escalated, he said. Now he spends his time going to his daughter’s field hockey games and managing his investments.
He’s planning to make maple syrup from the trees in the backyard of his home in Briarcliff Manor, New York.
‘Fruitless’ Search
For Schubert, the former Jefferies banker in his third year looking for work, the longer he’s out of a job, the harder it is for him to tell his 10-year-old son to do his homework, he said.
"It might seem outwardly to him that I’ve given up," he said in an interview this month from his four-bedroom home in Glen Ridge, New Jersey. "I can’t come to the table and say, ‘Well, when you were five, I worked nonstop.’"
Schubert, who received a master’s degree in business administration from New York University in 1989 and was a managing director specializing in middle-market M&A deals at Jefferies, said he wasn’t surprised when he lost his job in 2008 during the financial crisis. He thought unemployment would last
12 months at most.
"The first year out was fruitless," he said. "There wasn’t much hiring going on at all."
By the middle of 2010, more potential employers seemed interested, and he felt "something was imminent," he said.
Nothing happened.
This year, he has become increasingly disheartened by bad news on Wall Street, and it’s more difficult to stay in touch with former colleagues as time goes by, he said.
Hurricane Irene
On the August weekend of Hurricane Irene, training to coach his son’s soccer team alongside younger fathers, being "overly competitive for a man of my age," Schubert twisted his right knee, he said. He aggravated the injury doing yard work and worries how much his health insurance will help, he said.
While his investment choices haven’t been "too terrible,"
he will consider selling his house if he doesn’t find a job.
"God, I hope it’s in the next six months," he said.
Hetal Patel, 44, a foreign-exchange trader who worked at London-based Lloyds Banking Group Plc for more than 20 years until last month, said he doesn’t plan to look for work until early next year, "when budgets become clearer and perhaps conditions improve."
Shares of his former company, controlled by the British government since a bailout in 2008, have fallen 64 percent this year, and the bank has posted a pretax loss of 3.86 billion pounds ($6 billion) in the first nine months. It announced 15,000 job cuts in June.
RBS Cuts
Another lender backed by the U.K., Edinburgh-based RBS, has announced about 30,000 job cuts, including 2,000 this year, since receiving the world’s biggest government bailout in 2008.
Its shares are down 50 percent in 2011, and CEO Stephen Hester said Nov. 4 the investment bank "will have to shrink further."
Tim Leary, 29, a director in high-yield and distressed trading, lost his job there on Nov. 7. After he got the news, he called his wife to say he’d see her and their 4-month-old son for breakfast.
He drove back to Manhattan from his office in Stamford, Connecticut, and put together a resume for the first time in years. He said he plans to spend "a fair amount of time figuring out what the landscape is" before starting his search.
Falling Bonuses
"Unfortunately, the industry always seems to get it wrong and they over-hire," said Philip Keevil, 65, a former head of investment banking at S.G. Warburg & Co. and now a partner at New York-based advisory firm Compass Advisers LLP. "They are over-optimistic and then periodically throw large numbers out."
Morale on Wall Street and London is "probably as bad, if not worse" than it has been in decades, said Keevil.
Wall Street bonuses are expected to fall in 2011 from the $128,530 average last year, DiNapoli, the state comptroller, said in October. Even so, when Goldman Sachs set aside 24 percent less to pay employees in the first nine months than in the same period last year, the amount, $10 billion, was equal to
$292,836 for each of its 34,200 workers as of Sept. 30. That’s nearly six times the median household income in the U.S., where
49.1 million live in poverty, according to Census Bureau data.
Quitting for Quito
Wyatt Laikind, 26, made three times as much in his first year out of college working at Citigroup Inc. as his single mother earned when he was growing up in western Massachusetts.
"It was like winning the lottery to get that job," said Laikind, who worked as an associate on the New York-based bank’s high-yield credit-trading desk.
He got a job on Wall Street because he "was under the impression that it was a more meritocratic environment," and "my hard work and intelligence would be paid off," he said.
At first, he liked the excitement, he said. Then, after financial regulations curtailed proprietary trading, the job became "less appealing." He said he didn’t like smiling at clients while having to figure out how to profit from them.
In July, after a vacation, he called his boss to quit, he said in an interview from Quito, Ecuador, where he is now working for Equitable Origin LLC, a start-up that offers a certification system for oil exploration. His salary is less than 5 percent of what he made at Citigroup, he lives with intermittent hot water, and he was robbed at knifepoint last month, he said.
"I feel happier on a daily basis," Laikind said.
Sagging Mattress
His tone was different in a later e-mail.
"I wasn’t brought up in luxury, so I like to think I can tough it out," he wrote, describing the sagging mattress he slept on in jeans and a hooded sweatshirt to stay warm. "But I may have to give it up and try going back to finance soon."
If he does, it won’t be easy.
"Until now, at many firms, a lot of investment bankers have been convinced that we are living now in a limited period where things are a bit more difficult and afterwards the old world will come back," Kaspar Villiger, 70, chairman of Zurich- based UBS said in an interview this month. "This illusion has now vanished."
Increased capital requirements agreed to by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision will limit banks’ use of borrowed funds to boost profit, lower their return on equity and likely reduce executive compensation, analysts say. High leverage "was the juice in the system," said Ilana Weinstein, CEO of New York-based search firm IDW Group LLC. "It’s gone."
Boxer Shorts
For Brady, 42, the vanishing point at MF Global arrived after he returned to Chicago from Florida. He thought the New York-based futures brokerage would "weather the storm," even as Moody’s Investors Service cut its rating and shares plunged, he said. He got word that another company would buy the firm while at a Talking Heads cover-band concert and celebrated with a friend by drinking Anchor Steam beer and shots of Jameson.
He woke on Oct. 31 at 4:40 a.m. and searched for deal reports on his phone while standing in his boxer shorts with an electric toothbrush in the other hand. He didn’t find any.
The acquiring firm, Interactive Brokers Group Inc., pulled out of the deal after a discrepancy in client accounts surfaced, and MF Global filed for bankruptcy later that day.
At first, Brady thought his company would survive, he said.
His wife thought he was in denial. His mood changed when he was sitting in the home office adjoining his bedroom, looking at the value of his holdings.
"My Fidelity account looks like my bar tab from just a week ago," Brady said.
All Fired
On Nov. 11, a human resources executive asked colleagues on Brady’s floor to gather by his desk, which looks out on the Willis Tower, the tallest building in the U.S. They were all fired. She told them to show receipts for large personal belongings to the plainclothes security guards by the elevators, and that checks would be sent in the mail, Brady said. Someone asked if the checks would bounce. She said she didn’t know.
Brady, who said he wasn’t aware of the size of the bets MF Global made on European sovereign debt, wrote to clients this month saying he’s looking to join a firm that believes "integrity and honesty are the single most important ingredients to success." He said last week he is optimistic.

My angel, the roar and losing my mojo

I have been asking myself recently why i cant write or find the spark to write. And when i am honest with myself, i realise that this lack of spark is at work, at home and i am coasting. I hate coasting.

This is effecting how i am interacting with the relationships around me. I am not functioning optimally.

At work, i can do the little but seems sufficient to perform at what is expected of me by my peers and bosses. That does not say much about my bosses that i can coast and still be seen to be performing. I expect more from myself and for the last few weeks or months, i have been drained and slow.

At home, i think i am ok but i realise that i lack patience or the energy to be proactive.

Losing my mojo can be seen at my lack of energy at home, the slow pace i function at home and in my health. Again, i have hit my highs in terms of weight and have yet to take the steps to correct my health, work and home/family matters.

I was lost and coasting.

But yesterday evening, again, my angel has showed me the way. Ilyana's swim teacher has decided to certify all her students. Ilyana had to undergo a swim test and she was very anxious the night before but Yaso told her clearly what she needed to do. And in the morning, Ilyana met with her teacher so she could give her one last lesson on what would be required. Ilyana needed details and a plan and direction on what was expected of her and then she was ready to deal with it. She learnt Planning.

At 6pm, i went to the pool and Ilyana was ready for her swim. Lines were crossed and Ilyana was to have her test at 5pm but we were informed 6pm so she had to do her test with others who were doing the Level 5 assessment while Ilyana was still at Level 4.

She started off with 2 laps (50m) of free style, then 1 lap of butterfly and then 1 lap of backstroke, 25m of dolphin. She looked so tired but she did it all. She paced herself so well. I knew she was tired as on her backstroke, she could not keep her lane and moved from lane 1 to lane 6. She did not stop. She kept on. She was Persistent.

Then there was the pajama test and we realised that we did not bring her pajamas down. We did not Plan well. We ran up to the apartment to get her pajamas but what we rushed to bring was too big and it kept falling off. She had to first wade with her hand above the water at the deep side of the pool (12 - 14ft). The poor girl had to keep one hand above the water and with the other, she held the falling pants up. Then after passing that, she had to dive and retrive a pen from the bottom of the pool. Again, the pants kept ballooning up restricting her dive. She had to retie a knot in the pants and she dove in again and again. She never gave up and finally succeeded after her 5th try. She must have been so tired. She never complained about the pajama or blamed anyone. She fought and Succeeded.

I thought that would be the end but then she had to show her turns. Freestyle and then somersault and push off from the wall. Butterfly to the wall, turn and two strokes back without coming up for air. She came to the wall but she could not make her turn. She kept on and on and in the end the tester saw her will to get it done and stopped her and started talking to her and asked her teacher to also come over and help her. All the other kids had passed and were getting their badges and certificates but Ilyana was still in the pool. It was by far the most stressful 7 minutes i have ever gone thru. But Ilyana did it. It was not as good as the other kids but she never stopped. The tester leaned down and gave her a high five and i started to breath again. She was my angel and i was so proud.

That day i learned that we have to plan, we have to be persistent and we have to fight to succeed.

But that night, i also had one more lesson but this time from my baby doll. When Ilyana and i got back to the apartment, Ilyana was so tired and needed attention. I was with Sahana and when Ilyana came out, she asked for my time and i obliged. What i did not realise was that Sahana felt cut off. Later i found Sahana in her room reading a book by herself and she had her angry and crying face on.

Her normal reaction would have been to throw a tantrum but my baby doll is growing up. She did not whine but when i entered the room, she roared at me and rushed to me. I did not know whether she was going to hug me or punch me. I held her and then she calmed and told me why she was upset. She took Action.

I realised then, Stop Whining and get in Action and ROAR like a 5yr old.

For my Angel,

you teach but you doubt

you inspire, and persevere

you succeed, never easily

You will be my direction

For my baby doll,

you Roar, you shine

you laugh, you are bright

You will make me Roar

Times are a Changing

Recently, i was asked a very interesting question - if US finances are in such a bad shape, why does USD appreciate in times of risk aversion. This to me was a very interesting question and its a question i have to deal with daily in my role as a local markets trader.

My reply to this friend and to some others are attached but the message is the same - Times are a changing.
____

Your question on why USD up was the RIGHT question. No one in KL got that.

Basically, the speculative money now borrows in USD and invests in risky assets - equity, bonds in other currencies. So when there is risk aversions, these guys sell their risky assets and buy back USD to pay their USD borrowing.

Also, there are two types of risk aversion - Perception and Real (my own terms...haha).

Perception Risk Aversion (PRA) - market panics and risky assets get sold off and USD strengthens but then things move back or bounce back because of some positive moves. This is what happened from 2006 to 2008.

Real Risk Aversion (RRA) - is market panics, risky assets get sold off and USD strengthens but then an event happens (2008 was Lehman failure), and the risk aversion actually led to a funding crisis where banks did not want to lend to one another. When the banks stopped lending, importers and exporters could not get Bank lines or Letter of Credits to facilitate trade, and trade crashed. In RRA, everything breaks, Equity does a big selloff, property sells off and USD flies as capital is pulled back.

Risk Positive (RP) - From 2009, market moved back to a risk positive mode and here people borrowed USD all over again, and started selling USD to buy risky assets in other countries. Also, perception of USD changed where players now felt that USD had only one way to go - DOWN!!!. This carried thru to 2010.


Where are we now?

My view is if we try to put whats happening now into context of that 2006 - 2010 period, we are now in mid to late 2008 where we saw a lot of volatility but news of things getting worse and worse was coming out with occasional bouts of positivity until the EVENT happens. What that EVENT will be, i am not sure or it could just be a multiple of Events - France downgrade, Greece default, massive riots in China..who knows. But the strains are there.

What will happen?

In the near term (say next 3-6mths), markets will be generally negative with bouts of positivity ie you will see volatility but negative moves should be bigger than positive moves. USD should see more strength in the near term. If the Event(s) occur, you will see a big Negative move like we saw in 2008 and govts will try to prop things up as much as possible. My view is that they wont be as successful as they were before. There will be a sharp slowdown in business activity across all boards (worst hit will be financials) and then things will pick up but at slower pace to what we saw in the 2009 - 2010 recovery.

Will Malaysia be different?

My main issue with Malaysia is they lack a credible business plan or business focus. They cant compete as a low cost manufacturer as they dont have a large labour pool. They dont have a strong enough educated pool for high skill manufacturing and their services/tourist sector is growing but too slow to make a difference in the next 5 years. Malaysia's main wealth and growth is now commodities. So if i am right and we go through a sharp drop in buisness activity and then a very slow recovery - commodity prices will stabilise and maybe trend lower. In that situation, Malaysia will not benefit. But if commodity prices recover faster than expected, Malaysia will do well. So thats the call - how will oil and commodities do? That will determine how well Malaysia does. I cant say for sure what will happen on commodities but my bet is on a drop in prices by at least 30%-40% and then a stabilisation of prices.

What you should do?

Focus on growing your customer base and business growth. Coz if you get thru this next 2 years, you will be stronger than ever. This is what happend with business that started in 2007. They nearly went under in 2008 but then did extremely well 2009 - 2010 and now have adequate buffers to get thru the next down move.

Keep liquidity near. try to bring your payment terms close or get long term bank lines and borrowing in place once you reach a size to do that. Keep cash ready and invest only in your business.

Near term, USD will see higher prices but post that Event(s), USD is going to weaken considerably so if you receiving income in USD, try to push for a currency closer to your cost ie MYR or IDR. OR, whenever you receive USD only keep a small proportion in USD, keep the rest in your base currency. I would suggest not keeping more tan 20 - 30% of your cash in USD.

Of course, i could be wrong as like trading, everything is based on what you think will happen and the more info you have, the better your chances to be right. Currently i am 70% sure that the outcome will be as i say - so pretty committed to that view. Will let you know if that changes.

For now, getting liquidity and managing your cash to get thru the next two years will be key as you continue to invest in the business. Its a fine line you will have to face - spend money on the business which reduces your liquidity NOW but adds revenue later. Here, only you can make that call but my bet - go ALL IN......survive the next two years, your business is going to be growing from strength to strength.

Good luck
____

what i am convinced about is that if you see the growth in the last two years, its basically been a growth about financial assets - property, equity, bonds etc. Its been very little about real growth - save maybe for Apple but thats not enough - we need new growth areas, new businesses outside of services. I think the slowdown will be good in the long run but capital has to move away from financial assets and into real business - energy efficiency, increasing productivity, alternate energy.

Its interesting times and thats what i said about 2006 - 2010 but maybe the slump in 2008 was just delayed till now and now we are actually heading to real downturn and real changes. Creation from destruction and when people look back - maybe they will look at 2006 - 2014 as one period.

I am not being pessimistic. In fact i am optimistic about the long term but in the near term, be cautious of finances, focus on your business and build multiple streams of income (if you are in business) and if you are a salaried worker, keep expenses down as i think incomes will actually go down or stabilise at these levels and not move up. My whole goal from here is to build a proper business (ie sustainable income) for this bank and am achieveing that BUT i take nothing for granted and am now keeping at least 1yr of cash as a buffer to cover expenses and maybe even 2yrs.


Upon us all a little rain must fall - Led Zeppelin

_________

be prepared, be productive, be relevant

The Buying & Selling of Others & WHats your Figure

What's your Figure?

Now that is an interesting question. Recently, i watched Wall Street, the original movie and then i watched the new Wall Street movie. Now, as a trader, both movies struck certain chords with me.

In the original, at the ending, the Charlie Sheen character is heading to the court house where he expects to be put in jail. His father tells him "Maybe this is the wake call you need. Stop living off the buying and selling of others and produce something.". That was a movie released in 1984 and the same conversations in that movie can be had now in 2010 (especially after 2008). In that scene, i remembered a similiar conversation i had with my father. No matter how much i tried, he could never understand what i did for a living or why i enjoy it so much. He could not see what i produce or what i contributed to the world. In his mind, i believe he felt that i lived off the buying and selling of others or as some put it - i use other people's money and skim off the top.

What do i do and what motivates me to do it?

To the first question, i would tell you that i strive to provide a platform for capital (money) to flow into emerging markets and for capital to flow out. I am the bridge or one of the bridges that allows capital to flow from surplus centers to centers that require it. I would tell you that proudly but most people would rather believe i live off the buying and selling of others.

Why? Because i make money as capital flows into countries when they need it. I make money when capital flows out when they dont need it. I make tremendous amount of money when money flows into countries that are having too much capital inflow and i make the most amount of money when capital flows out at points when the country needs it the most. No one complains when they need it but we are easy to blame when the flow hurts. This is only natural.

Especially as its a job that can pay well but in all things, there is no such thing as money for nothing. Your career as a trader can end in so many ways. In 2006, the worst trading year i ever had, if i had not recovered from my losses, i may not have got the transfer to Singapore and my career could have stalled. I have to continuously improve and there is no let up as at some point, you can be made redundant. Recently i heard about 3 or 4 cases of people who have not been performing and have been asked to either leave their banks or are being transferred back to their home countries. Its sad especially when the family is already established here in Singapore. This is what we all face if we become complacent or switch off. There is no off button in this job.

So why do it? It cant be only about the money. Granted there are those that are solely motivated by the money but many of these guys burn out or lose interest or worse they sacrifice their integrity to support lifestyles that require more and more money. In the second wall street movie, the young idealistic banker (in my mind, that could be me...granted i dont look as good in a suit) asks the diabolical and greedy Josh Brolin character - Whats your figure? Everyone has a figure. Their walk away figure. The Josh Brolin character smirks and says MORE.

It cant be about MORE, it has to mean more than that.

To me i love what i do as no job gives you the opportunities to see how each and every one is linked - how for instance, in China, most people save almost 40 - 50% of their income for their child's education and for their own medical expenses. Now China has a slowing manufacturing division and a rising educated degree carrying population (most estimates expect 7m graduates a year will be entering the chinese work force). What can they do? They need to boost the services sector domestically but to do that they need stronger consumption by the people. They see this and now there is a big push to provide education and medical facilities and support for the public. The public then has more to spend to grow consumption. What this means is that there will be a large amount of capital flowing into China in the consumer sectors and in retail and in medical facilities. What should be done - move capital to medical providers, education providers, the CNY must appreciate. Everything is linked and my job gives me a front row seat to how the world is growing for good and bad. Mostly good as i am a optimist.

So i love what i do and it pays but it cant be about MORE.

I have my walk-away figure. The figure that i have in my mind where i am financially free. So many people pluck numbers out of the air saying i want 1m sitting in my account or 1m per child. All good but everyones figure is different and is relative to their income and their spending habits.

My belief which i believe strongly is life is too short for delayed gratification to be your sole motive in life. My motive in life is to provide and to meet long term goals while enjoying and spending the now.

So whats my figure?

Its the amount of money that if i put it in a FD earning 4%, i can comfortably live off the interest earned.

So say you want 20k a month which is 240k a year. Your figure then will be 240k/4% or 6 Million.

My figure - thats a secret but i can tell you this i have only covered 4%, ONLY 96% to go.

What do i do then? Maybe stop living off the buying and selling of others (haha) and Produce, Give it away or build something lasting....i dont know but i am excited at the prospect.

So heres to each and everyone finding their figure and succeeding.

d.

In Memoriam....A toast

My father in law passed in November and my father passed March 2006. But it is this June month that makes me look back. It is this June that i start listening to a CD my brother compiled. It is this month that makes me think that as we grow up and grow older, it is sometimes what and who we have lost that defines us. It is this month that i value the gifts i have, the lights that will guide me home - my family and my circle of friends.

It is this month that i think of my friend, Anand.

These words strike me - (Mad World by Gary Jules)

Their tears are filling up their glasses
no expression, no expression
Hide my head, i wanna drown my sorrow
No tomorrow, No tomorrow

I find it kind of funny, i find it kinda of sad,
The dreams in which i'm dying are the best i've ever had
I find it hard to tell you, i find it hard to take
People running in circles its a very, very
Mad world, Mad world


These verses are part of the first song in the Anand CD. As i listen to the song, i marvel at my brother's choice as the song sings of being lost and angry and the song flows with deep sadness. As i listen, i keep asking myself, have i felt that lost, that angry or have i felt such sadness fill me. I can never answer myself. There were times when i think i did, realising for the first time that i had to face failure. Failure that my abilities and aptitude was not enough to coast through life. Failure that i nearly did not make it through university. So when i listen to this song, i try to imagine those feelings again and i can never feel it again.

What i feel is blessed and what i remember is the bonds that were strengthened in that 2006. We, my circle of friends, have formed bonds from our losses. In that June 2006, we came together and we supported, we laughed, we cried but through it all we cared. Thats what i remember. I remember my wife standing by me and supporting me and i remember my friends and i remember my daughter sitting in my lap as we spoke of our friend who had made his sad choice. I remember the lights in my life.

As the sadness of Mad World finishes, the second song sings of these lights. Again, my brother had chosen well. These are some of the words -

Fix You - Coldplay

When you try your best but you don't succeed
When you get what you want but not what you need
When you feel so tired but you can't sleep
Stuck in reverse.

And the tears come streaming down your face
When you lose something you can't replace

Lights will guide you home
And ignite your bones
And I will try to fix you

This second song goes loud and rifts with hope and i am struck by how lucky i am to have my lights, my family and my circle of friends.

So this is my toast - In Memoriam

the first time we saw loss,
we sat as a group as our friends, brothers
stood straight and strong for the many
and remembered their mother

the second time,
we stood with the brothers
as their father passed

the next was my father,
and we had the support needed

then, Anand
and that we formed bonds
strong and filled with laughter

then another mother
in that same year

and then a father,
i considered mine as well

and now a father, a new grandfather

to all those we lost and miss, hear our cries soft but hear our laughter LOUD

Take it Like a man and go on

For the last week I have had the amazing positivity that I felt at the start of the year slowly fade. I love the work I do but the management and organisation drains me. I spend more time managing up than growing the business.

And now I have reached a certain point in my career that I crave the independence and empowerment to run and grow my buisness well. I do not like to have to justify my every action nor be second guessed. If I am wrong I want to be held accountable but i want the space to make both right and wrong decisions.

Yesterday things got heated between me and my boss and I rarely get angry or raise my voice but I was very close. Then overnight we again received queries on how we were managing our risk.

My problem is that I get very focused at work (which is very important as a trader) that it's hard to draw a line when I am home. My unfortunate wife has to deal with that but that's a whole different story.

So this morning I wa truly angry and I went to a friend in the office who I respect as a trader and I vented and said I give up. He knew I was upset.

When I went back to my desk he had dropped me a ib message - relax bro TAKE it like a man and go on.

I just started laughing out when I read that an I realized again everyone of us faces difficulties but the true measure of ourselves is not how we act in good times but how we perform in bad times.

So I started pulling together again and I have my issues but this year is gonna be great. Not because of where I work or who I work for but because I have a great family and I am productive.

So on those days that you feel your motivtion slipping, let me pass the best advice I have received this year - take it like a man and go on.

d.

- iPhone post